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Add your model inputs
Add your model inputs below. You can see how changes to inputs impact valuation on the right side of the page.
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General info +
| Category | Default value | Input |
|---|---|---|
| Company name | Therapeutics Company | |
| First forecast year | 2023 | |
| Discount rate | 10% | |
| Platform value | $100M |
Products +
Adding products or indications requires a subscription
Product 1
| Category | Default value | Input |
|---|---|---|
| Product name | Product 1 | |
| Patent expiry year | 2047 | |
| Indication 1 | Indication 1 | |
| Indication 1 stage | Target-to-hit |
Product R&D +
If a stage does not apply to your product (i.e. getting accelerated approval post-Phase 2 and skipping P3), enter 0 for the time and cost of the stage, and 100% for p(TS))
The model does not include preclinical costs for the any indications other than the lead indication. Once a molecule is in the clinic for the lead indication, other indications can enter the clinic without incurring additional preclinical costs.
Product 1
Indication 1
Pre-human studies
| Category | Default value | Input |
|---|---|---|
| Target-to-hit cost | $2.1M | |
| Target-to-hit time | 1 years | |
| Target-to-hit p(TS) | 80% | |
| Hit-to-lead cost | $5.3M | |
| Hit-to-lead time | 2 years | |
| Hit-to-lead p(TS) | 75% | |
| Lead optimization cost | $21.0M | |
| Lead optimization time | 2 years | |
| Lead optimization p(TS) | 85% | |
| Preclinical development cost | $10.5M | |
| Preclinical development time | 1 years | |
| Preclinical development p(TS) | 69% |
Indication 1
Human studies
| Category | Default value | Input |
|---|---|---|
| Phase 1 cost | $34.7M | |
| Phase 1 time | 2 years | |
| Phase 1 p(TS) | 60% | |
| Phase 2 cost | $80.4M | |
| Phase 2 time | 2 years | |
| Phase 2 p(TS) | 36% | |
| Phase 3 cost | $350.2M | |
| Phase 3 time | 3 years | |
| Phase 3 p(TS) | 62% | |
| FDA submission cost | $54.9M | |
| FDA submission time | 1 years | |
| FDA submission p(TS) | 90% |
Revenue +
Product 1
| Category | Default value | Input |
|---|---|---|
| Price in year product is launched | $50,000 | |
| Annual price increase % | 5% |
Product 1
Indication 1
| Category | Default value | Input |
|---|---|---|
| Peak patients treated / year | 50,000 | |
| Years from launch to peak sales | 5 years |
Costs and expenses +
P&L costs and expenses
| Category | Default value | Input |
|---|---|---|
| COGS % of sales | 10% | |
| Gross-to-net discount | 10% | |
| SG&A % of sales | 30% | |
| Tax rate | 20% |
Annual platform R&D
Calculated as max of 1) % of sales or "Platform R&D in year 1" * growth rate
| Category | Default value | Input |
|---|---|---|
| Platform R&D in year 1 ($M) | $10M | |
| Annual % growth in platform R&D | 5% | |
| Platform R&D % sales | 5% |
Launch costs (SG&A)
Launch costs are in addition to the SG&A expense defined above
Product 1
Indication 1
| Category | Default value | Input |
|---|---|---|
| Launch year - 3 ($M) | $25M | |
| Launch year - 2 ($M) | $35M | |
| Launch year - 1 ($M) | $75M | |
| Launch year ($M) | $100M | |
| Launch year + 1 ($M) | $100M |
Cash flow and DCF +
Capex and depreciation
Capex calculated based on % of sales post-approval; otherwise grows at fixed rate per year
DCF does not include terminal value
| Category | Default value | Input |
|---|---|---|
| Capex in year 1 | 1.0 | |
| Capex annual growth rate | 5% | |
| Capex % of sales | 1% | |
| PP&E useful life (years) | 20 | |
| PP&E salvage value as % of original value | 20% |
Working capital
| Category | Default value | Input |
|---|---|---|
| Accounts receivable % sales | 15% | |
| Inventory % of COGS | 4% | |
| Prepaid expenses % SG&A | 1% | |
| Other current assets % sales | 1% | |
| Accounts payable % COGS | 20% | |
| Accrued expenses & SG&A | 12% | |
| Other current liabilities % sales | 1% |
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Output charts and tables
See how different inputs impact valuation. Click the "Update model" button to update the charts.
You can fine-tune your model in the browser, then export the finished product to excel to share with your team.
Enterprise value:
Total company valuation includes the value of each program plus general corporate spend (platform R&D, capex, working capital, etc).
Funding need to profitability only includes program-specific spend, and excludes general corporate spend like platform R&D and capital expenditures.
This chart shows the value of each program as it progresses through each development stage. This provides a picture of how the company's value will grow over time.
This excludes general corporate expenses.
If a program has already completed a given stage, there will be no data for that stage in the chart (for example, a Phase 2 program will not have any data for value at Preclinical development).
Click on a program in the legend to show or hide the program in the chart.
This chart shows the cumulative funding need through each development stage.
This excludes general corporate expenses.
If a program has already completed a given stage, there will be no data for that stage in the chart (for example, a Phase 2 program will not have any data for funding need through Preclinical development).
Click on a program in the legend to show or hide the program in the chart.
This chart shows the return on investment of each development stage. It shows the increase in valuation after completing a stage divided by the total cost of funding the stage.
This information can be used to plan investment and fundraising strategy. Prioritizing investments with high near-term value inflection enables you to raise funding on better terms, which can be used to fund programs with longer-term value inflection.
This excludes general corporate expenses.
If a program has already completed a given stage, there will be no data for that stage in the chart (for example, a Phase 2 program will not have any data for value inflection at Preclinical development).
Click on a program in the legend to show or hide the program in the chart.
This shows annual net revenue by program. Net revenue equals gross revenue less gross-to-net adjustments.
Click on a program in the legend to show or hide the program in the chart.
Operating income by program does not include general platform R&D or other general corporate expense.
Click on a program in the legend to show or hide the program in the chart.
Risk-adjusted net income adjusts net income by the probability of that income occurring. This accounts for the technical risk of each development stage.
Click on a program in the legend to show or hide the program in the chart.
DCF overview
$ in millions, except drug price