🎯 Recommended Portfolio Action Items

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📊 Performance Check: Strong YTD performance (+24.7% vs +18.2% benchmark) with manageable 28% volatility. Your 2.1% alpha demonstrates genuine stock-picking skill.

⚠️ Catalyst Risk Ahead: 67% of portfolio value has major catalysts in next 60 days
• MDGL Phase 3 NASH data (7% upside/64% downside) = 8.4% portfolio weight
• ARWR Phase 3 interim (38% upside/45% downside) = 7.6% portfolio weight
• Combined 16% position risk could drive 6-8% total portfolio drawdown on negative outcomes

📋 Action Items:
• Consider trimming MDGL pre-readout (unfavorable risk/reward setup)
• Hedge ARWR exposure or reduce to 5% weight
• Overall: 73% probability of +15% portfolio upside vs 27% chance of -12% downside over next quarter

📊 Portfolio Overview

Symbol Company Weight % Stage Therapeutic Area Next Catalyst Market Cap
MRNA Moderna Inc 12.5% Commercial Vaccines 🟡 Earnings • 18d 52.3B
GILD Gilead Sciences 11.8% Commercial Antivirals 🟢 Earnings • 25d 78.9B
VRTX Vertex Pharmaceuticals 10.2% Commercial Rare Disease 🟡 CF Data • 45d 89.4B
SRPT Sarepta Therapeutics 9.7% Commercial Gene Therapy 🟢 DMD Study • 62d 12.8B
BMRN BioMarin Pharmaceutical 8.9% Commercial Rare Disease 🟡 PKU Data • 89d 15.2B
MDGL Madrigal Pharmaceuticals 8.4% Phase3 NASH 🔴 NASH P3 • 12d 3.4B
ARWR Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals 7.6% Phase3 RNAi 🔴 P3 Interim • 28d 4.1B
DNLI Denali Therapeutics 7.2% Phase2 Oncology 🟢 ALS Data • 156d 2.8B
FATE Fate Therapeutics 6.8% Phase2 Cell Therapy 🟡 CAR-T Data • 78d 5.9B
EDIT Editas Medicine 6.1% Phase1 Gene Editing 🟢 CRISPR P1 • 134d 2.1B
NTLA Intellia Therapeutics 5.9% Phase1 Gene Editing 🟡 TTR Data • 203d 3.2B
CASH Cash & Equivalents 4.9% - Cash - -

📊 Catalyst Risk/Reward Legend (click any catalyst for details)

🔴 Unfavorable: Limited upside, high downside risk
🟡 Balanced: Reasonable risk/reward setup
🟢 Favorable: High upside potential, limited downside
$2.4B
Total Portfolio Value
11
Active Positions
4.9%
Cash Weight
+24.7%
YTD Return
🎯 Understand What's Driving Your Returns
📊 Current Holdings
MRNA
12.5%
GILD
11.8%
VRTX
10.2%
SRPT
9.7%
BMRN
8.9%
MDGL
8.4%
ARWR
7.6%
DNLI
7.2%
FATE
6.8%
EDIT
6.1%
NTLA
5.9%
CASH
4.9%
💡 Why this matters: When your portfolio goes up 30%, was it because you picked great stocks, rode momentum trends, or because the whole biotech market was hot? This analysis separates your skill from market factors and price momentum.
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Where Your Returns Really Come From
Market Movement: 35%
Momentum: 20%
Development Stage: 20%
Sector Mix: 15%
Your Skill: 10%
1.24
Market Beta
24% more volatile than market
+2.1%
Alpha
Pure stock-picking skill
0.76
R-squared
76% driven by market factors vs. stock picks
6.8%
Tracking Error
Shows how much you swing vs. market
🛡️ Stress Test Your Portfolio
📊 Current Holdings
MRNA
12.5%
GILD
11.8%
VRTX
10.2%
SRPT
9.7%
BMRN
8.9%
MDGL
8.4%
ARWR
7.6%
DNLI
7.2%
FATE
6.8%
EDIT
6.1%
NTLA
5.9%
CASH
4.9%
🔗 How Connected Are Your Holdings?
💡 Why this matters: If all your stocks move together, you're not as diversified as you think. This shows which holdings rise and fall in sync.
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Top 6 Holdings Connection Map

MRNA
0.45
0.38
0.52
0.41
0.29
0.45
GILD
0.61
0.33
0.47
0.38
0.38
0.61
VRTX
0.44
0.52
0.35
0.52
0.33
0.44
SRPT
0.48
0.41
0.41
0.47
0.52
0.48
BMRN
0.39
0.29
0.38
0.35
0.41
0.39
MDGL
Move Together (0.6+)
Somewhat Connected (0.3-0.6)
Independent (0.0-0.3)
📈 Portfolio improvement tip: VRTX and GILD have high correlation (0.61) - consider replacing one with a CNS-focused biotech like SAGE or BIIB to reduce concentration risk while maintaining growth potential.
🎲 Which Holdings Are Your Biggest Risk?
💡 Why this matters: Some stocks contribute more to your overall portfolio risk than their weight suggests. Find out which positions could hurt you most if things go wrong.
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Risk Contribution by Position

MDGL
5.2%
MRNA
4.5%
SRPT
4.1%
GILD
3.8%
BMRN
3.5%
VRTX
3.2%
💡 Risk reduction tip: Consider reducing MDGL (highest risk contributor at 5.2%) or adding more uncorrelated holdings in different therapeutic areas.
What if the market crashes? -30%
37.2%
Your Portfolio Would Drop
42.0%
Worst Case (5% chance)
⚡ Improve Your Risk-Adjusted Returns
📊 Current Holdings
MRNA
12.5%
GILD
11.8%
VRTX
10.2%
SRPT
9.7%
BMRN
8.9%
MDGL
8.4%
ARWR
7.6%
DNLI
7.2%
FATE
6.8%
EDIT
6.1%
NTLA
5.9%
CASH
4.9%
💡 Why this matters: You might be taking unnecessary risk for the returns you're getting. This tool shows you how to get the same returns with less risk, or better returns for the same risk.
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⚙️ Your Preferences
How much volatility can you handle? 25%
Max you'd put in any single stock 15%
📊 Before vs. After
Your Current Portfolio
MRNA 12.5%
GILD 11.8%
VRTX 10.2%
SRPT 9.7%
BMRN 8.9%
Risk Level: 28.4%
AI-Optimized Portfolio
MRNA 12.7%
GILD 12.6%
VRTX 10.9%
SRPT 9.8%
BMRN 9.5%
Risk Level: 25%
Portfolio is well-optimized for your target 25% volatility and 15% maximum position constraints.
📈 Measure Your Investment Skill
📊 Current Holdings
MRNA
12.5%
GILD
11.8%
VRTX
10.2%
SRPT
9.7%
BMRN
8.9%
MDGL
8.4%
ARWR
7.6%
DNLI
7.2%
FATE
6.8%
EDIT
6.1%
NTLA
5.9%
CASH
4.9%
💡 Why this matters: Did you beat the market because you picked great stocks, or just because you got lucky with timing? This breaks down your skill vs. luck.
Show technical details →
📊 Performance Commentary
Portfolio Performance Summary:

🎯 Excellent stock selection: Your +8.3% selection alpha over 12 months shows strong stock-picking ability. You consistently identified undervalued biotech names.

⏰ Poor timing decisions: Your -2.1% timing alpha suggests you were early/late on sector rotations or made suboptimal entry/exit points.

📈 Net result: +6.1% total alpha means you beat the biotech market by 6.1 percentage points through skill, not luck. Your 1.42 Sharpe ratio vs. 1.18 benchmark shows you're generating better risk-adjusted returns.
📊 How You Beat (or Lost to) the Market
Period Your Returns Market Returns Your Edge Stock Picking Skill Timing Decisions
12M +34.2% +28.1% +6.1% +8.3% -2.1%
6M +18.7% +14.2% +4.5% +5.2% -0.8%
3M +8.9% +6.4% +2.5% +3.1% -0.6%
📈 Risk-Adjusted Performance Scorecard
1.42
Your Sharpe Ratio
1.18
Market Sharpe Ratio
+0.24
Your Advantage
0.89
Consistency Score