I write data-driven articles and analyses on biotech startups and venture capital. Content ranges from deep dives on industry trends to resources for learning about the industry.
I've worked in biotech startups my whole career, as an investor, at startups and as a financial analyst in investment banking and on the healthcare team of a FAANG company.
Huge amounts of money have flowed to biotech startups over the last decade. But that trend may be reversing -- in a big way.
Startup investors are good at predicting which drugs will win FDA approval. But it has proven more difficult to pick which drugs will make money and generate compelling returns on R&D investment.
After over a decade of dominating the biotech venture landscape, established biotech VCs like Atlas, Versant, Third Rock and 5AM Ventures are ceding share to upstart VCs. Will these VCs lead the industry into the next boom, or are they just the last to leave the COVID-bubble party?
After a brutal year and a half, biotech is rebounding. But the cause of the turnaround is an unlikely one: an impending global economic recession.
Buzzy biotech platforms, including tech-bio companies and SPACs, have been hurt most by the post-COVID crash.
Big pharma is sitting on a record amount of cash. How much of the biotech startup universe can they afford to acquire?
The biotech crash has been hard on crossover investors. After more than doubling during COVID, how have the top crossover investors' portfolios fared during recent market turbulence?
Amid crashing equity markets, which biotech investors are shedding risk, and who has gone bargain hunting?
Venture investment into biotech startups is down 60% from its peak in early 2021. Who is still investing?
After a historic boom, biotech's recent losses are approaching dotcom-bust level -- and we may not have seen the worst yet. When the dust settles, what will the new normal look like?
In 2021, more money was invested in biotech startups than was returned to investors from M&A. This has never happened before 2021. What does it mean for the startup ecosystem?
The recent biotech crash is the fourth in the last 10 years. In each prior crash, the market quickly bounced back because the Fed came to the rescue. But this time may be different.
Monthly venture investment in biopharma startups is down 61% from March 2021 to March 2022, amid the biggest biotech crash since the dotcom bubble.
In what could signal the end of a historic boom, the investors who funded the biggest IPO boom in biotech history are abandoning risky biotech stocks.
The last ten years have seen the biggest boom in the history of biotech. But the future is uncertain.
How have the top biotech IPO and crossover investors fared during the biotech crash?
A slowing IPO market combined with the biggest-ever crop of IPO-seeking startups has created a big supply / demand imbalance in the IPO market.
The first half of 2021 represented the peak of a historic boom. The second half was the beginning of a historic crash.
Biotech stocks had a bad November, with the XBI down 10%. How did this impact venture funds?
Analysis of the performance of Series A biotech VCs: deal-level cash-on-cash returns, number of investments and exits, and percentage of investments that fail to raise the next round.
Analysis of the performance of biotech IPOs from 2018-1H 2021. IPO returns are declining while private market valuations continue to rise.
Comparing return distributions of biotech venture investments vs. other venture sectors.
Analyzing expected returns for Series A-C investments in biotech startups.
Analysis of the portfolios of three of the best-performing venture funds since 2007.
How do investments in the best-performing tech startups compare to the best-performing biotech startups?
It is commonly accepted that startups are more innovative than big companies. Is this true in the biopharma industry?
Aducanumab may be the biggest drug of all time. But Biogen is seeking FDA approval based on a post-hoc analysis. Are they data dredging, or is this the first disease modifying drug for Alzheimer's?
Lessons on building a lasting biotech company from the founders of Genentech.
A synthetic biology paper from Michael Lin's lab at Stanford, in layman's terms. Introduces basic engineering techniques and cancer biology concepts.
An interactive tool for valuing drug programs and explaining basic concepts in biopharma valuation.
An introduction to biotech business and finance through the analysis of the company that developed what will likely be world's most expensive drug. Includes downloadable financial model.
First post in a series about biotech finance, aimed at finance professionals who are interested in biotech, focused on fundamentals of P&L forecasting for drug companies.
Second post in a series about biotech finance, aimed at finance professionals who are interested in biotech, focused on common valuation techniques for biopharma companies.
Analysis of biopharma IPOs from 2018-Q12019: therapeutic area, therapeutic modality, development stage, and valuation of venture rounds.
Analysis of returns of venture investments in biopharma companies that went public from 2018-Q12019.
Describes the role of biopharma venture capital in the biotech system and economy as a whole.
Overview of who venture capital firms serve, what their responsibilites are, and how they make money.
A quick update on the VC and IPO markets: the IPO market stays strong, but venture funding is down from 2018's record levels.
Biopharma VC funding in January 2019 recovers from its December 2018 lows, though Series A funding continues its year-long trend downward.
A summary version of the posts is here.
Exploration of business, scientific and technological trends driving the explosion in biotech innovation and funding in the last five years.
A few charts describing the opportunity in bio and some of the problems facing the industry.
Some examples of problems in biopharma that startups might be suited to solving.
A few characteristics that many successful biotech startups have.
First short post in a series describing common topics to cover in a pitch, focused on unmet need and clinical development.
Second short post in a series describing common topics to cover in a pitch, focused on products and pipeline.
Third short post in a series describing common topics to cover in a pitch, focused on technology and platform.
Fourth short post in a series describing common topics to cover in a pitch, focused on development plans.
Overview of the stages and costs of the drug development process, intended for those not too familiar with the industry.
Update on YTD 2018 venture funding trends in biopharma, notably the rise of Chinese investment.
Overview of the current biopharma startup environment and ideas for how to navigate the job search.